| Now | Team | Rating | Proj. record | Playoffs | Bye | Final seed |
|---|
Every remaining regular-season game, simulated thousands of times. Each team's odds are the share of those seasons in which it finishes in a playoff spot.
1. Rate every team. Start with each team's scoring average this season, then pull it toward the league average. Early in the year the pull is strong, since a few big weeks can be luck; by midseason a team's own scoring counts for most of it. The amount of pull comes from this league's own scores, not a guess. That rated average is the Rating column.
2. Allow for being wrong. Each simulated season first nudges every rating up or down by how unsure we still are, and keeps it for that whole season. So a team that's secretly better than its numbers gets to be better all year, the way it happens in real life.
3. Play the games. Every remaining matchup on the real Sleeper schedule gets a score for both teams, drawn around their rating with the league's real week-to-week swing. For the coming week, the Sleeper projection for each team's set lineup counts for half, so byes and injuries show up.
4. Seed the league. Final records are sorted the way Sleeper seeds: wins first (ties count half), then total points for, including the simulated points. The playoff field and byes come from the league's Sleeper settings.
Clinched and Eliminated are certain from the records alone, not from the simulation. Odds above 99.9% or below 0.1% that aren't locked yet show as >99.9% and <0.1%.